The Modern-Day Moneyball? The Story of the 2022 Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians Celebrating their 2022 AL Central Pennant

Growing up, the odds were always stacked against Mike Chernoff. As a small middle infielder with minimal “pop,” Chernoff’s chances to be a productive player were limited. However, he made the most out of what he had, and became a clutch contact hitter for his Clemson Tigers.

After graduating from his alma mater, Chernoff joined the newly created Cleveland “Indians” analytics department, and his front office baseball career would take off.

In 2015, Chernoff would be named General Manager of the Cleveland “Indians,” and has continued to do what he did as a player at Clemson- make the most out of limited resources.

Over the past decade in baseball, the trend of winning teams has shown one big similarity - a large payroll. In the 2022 season, this was profoundly evident, with 9 of the 12 playoff teams having a top 15 payroll. The three other teams were the Seattle Mariners, the Tampa Bay Rays, and the Cleveland Guardians. Of those 3 teams that were not in the top 15, the 2022 Cleveland Guardians had the lowest payroll (27th out of 30 teams), and were far different. The Guardians took an old-school approach, by way of “small-ball.” Instead of focusing on hitting home runs - an important part of the Statcast Era - the Guardians took a different approach. They focused on hitting for average and stealing bases, and heavily relied on their fielding and pitching en route to winning 92 games. Chernoff and his team utilized statistics and acquired the best players to fit that style of play, while they simultaneously lowered their spending.

Unlike most teams in modern day baseball, the Cleveland Guardians pride themselves on their baserunning, pitching, and defense. Despite ranking 29th out of 30 teams in the league in home runs, and 21st in SLG %, the Cleveland Guardians still managed to be above average offensively. They did this through an emphasized focus on hitting for contact, contrary to many popular modern-day MLB beliefs to hit for power, ranking 6th in the league in hits and 7th in the league in AVG. The team also heavily emphasized speed, as they acquired some of the fastest players in the league in Amed Rosario, Myles Straw, and Andrés Giménez. With this speed, they were able to dominate the basepaths, finishing 6th in stolen bases. Both Giménez and Straw were top 25 in Weighted Stolen Base Runs (the number of runs a player contributes to his team by stealing bases). The Guardians were able to use these players’ speeds and ability to hit for average to their advantage in the batting lineup, using them to surround their superstar José Ramírez. In spite of only having one position player making over five million dollars this past season, the Guardians sustained a solid offense, which proved to be enough for them to win games and their division.

Despite only fielding an above average lineup, the Guardians pitching staff in 2022 was elite. As a whole, the staff was 9th best in FIP, 7th best in K/BB, and 5th best in WHIP.

While the overall pitching staff was elite, the starting pitchers were the primary engines behind it. The starting pitchers finished 2nd in IP/GS , finishing only behind the 2022 World Series champion Houston Astros. As a rotation, they also had the 4th most Quality Starts in the league. The Guardians also prioritized pitchers who could stay healthy throughout the season and eat innings, as 4 out of their 5 starters made 25 starts each.

In 2022, the Guardians only had two relief pitchers making over one million dollars - one of them being elite closer Emmanuel Clase. Through their use of statistics in creating an elite starting pitching staff, the Cleveland Guardians were able to save money and maintain a low payroll, while still winning games.

While the pitching was elite, it was the Cleveland Guardians’ fielding that made them contenders. The lineup was not as strong offensively as many of the other playoff teams, but they were one of the strongest teams defensively. As a team, the Guardians were 5th best in DefEff (Defensive Efficiency), meaning that their rate of converted balls put in play into outs was excellent. Because of their high DefEff, they were able to escape innings faster, allowing for their pitchers to pitch deeper into the game. The Guardians also had 3 players in the top 10 for DRS. Of those 3, Myles Straw and Steven Kwan were both top 10 in OAA . Kwan and Straw were paid a combined two million dollars in the 2022 season, displaying how the Guardians used statistics to build a strong team without spending large amounts of money. While players such as Myles Straw did not contribute much offensively (.564 OPS), they were able to make it up on the defensive side saving runs for their team. In an era where defensive players are not valued, the Cleveland Guardians took a contrary approach and acquired players whose strength was defense.

Similar to the actual Moneyball Athletics, the Guardians utilized analytics to build a playoff team with a minimal payroll. However, it is also important to recognize that it still takes superstars to win. Despite losing Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi, the Athletics still had stars such as Miguel Tejada, Tim Hudson, and Barry Zito. Like the Athletics, the Guardians possess one of the best closers in all of baseball in Emmanuel Clase, a Cy Young caliber pitcher in Shane Bieber, and an MVP Caliber hitter in José Ramírez.

Despite this, teams still have to build around their superstars with the right talent, because if they don’t, they could end up like the Angels…

This 2023 season will be telling for the Cleveland Guardians if they can sustain their success. While last year was a great step in the right direction, they will hope to build off it and win a playoff series (or more), and if they are able to, then we may have a new candidate for baseball's new modern-day Moneyball team.