Every MLB season brings with it a new wave of Cy Young contenders, breakout stars, and pitchers who take the leap from intriguing talent to legitimate top-of-the-rotation arms. Heading into 2026, several big-name starters like Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Zack Wheeler are expected to headline the conversation and turn in dominant campaigns. However, every year, one or two pitchers emerge from just outside that top tier and force their way into the spotlight. One pitcher who I believe is a strong breakout candidate for the 2026 season is Baltimore Orioles right-hander Shane Baz.
Shane Baz is not a new name to prospect watchers. Once one of the most highly touted young pitchers in baseball, Baz was ranked as high as the No. 8 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America during his time in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. The talent has never been the question. For most of his professional career, the biggest obstacle has simply been staying on the field.
That challenge has defined much of Baz’s path to this point. After making his MLB debut in 2021, he has made just 54 starts across five seasons. Most notably, he missed the entire 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. For a pitcher with premium stuff and top-of-the-rotation potential, that kind of lost development time can be incredibly difficult to overcome. Still, 2025 may have quietly been the most important season of his career.
Last season, Baz made 31 starts and threw 166.1 innings, easily surpassing his previous career high of 79.1 innings in a season. That may not jump off the page at first glance, but it is a major development. After years of injuries and workload limitations, Baz finally showed he could handle the demands of a full season as a starter. That alone makes him one of the more fascinating pitchers to watch entering 2026.
At first glance, his traditional numbers from last season may not inspire much excitement. Baz finished with a 4.87 ERA, 4.37 FIP, and 1.335 WHIP. On paper, those are not the numbers of a breakout ace. However, his underlying metrics tell a much more encouraging story. He posted a 3.86 xERA and an even more impressive 3.07 xFIP, suggesting he pitched significantly better than his surface-level results indicate.
That gap between the traditional stats and the peripherals is exactly why Baz stands out as a breakout candidate. He still showed the ability to miss bats, finishing in the 67th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 54th percentile in whiff percentage. More importantly, he ranked in the 88th percentile in fastball velocity. For a pitcher coming off major surgery and still building himself back into full starter form, that is an extremely encouraging sign.
And while the whiff numbers from last season may seem only modestly above average, there is even more upside here than that percentile suggests. In 2021 and 2022, even though he appeared in only nine total games, Baz posted whiff numbers that placed him in the 90th percentile in baseball. That type of bat-missing ability does not just disappear. If anything, there is reason to believe it could return more consistently now that he is entering this season healthy and coming off a fully healthy year.
There is also the added factor of motivation. Baz has two more years of arbitration remaining, meaning a true breakout in 2026 could put him on the path toward serious money in the near future. This is a pivotal stretch for him, and it is also a major bet by Baltimore. The Orioles acquired Baz this offseason in exchange for a significant haul: outfielder Slater de Brun, catcher Caden Bodine, right-hander Michael Forret, outfielder Austin Overn, and a 2026 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick. That is not a light price to pay, but it is one the Orioles are clearly comfortable making because of Baz’s upside.
And that belief makes sense. Baz offers something every team covets: the possibility of a true front-line starter. He is still just one healthy season away from changing the way he is viewed across the league. With a full workload now under his belt, strong expected metrics, premium velocity, and a history of elite whiff potential, the ingredients are there for a major step forward.
So while stars like Skenes, Skubal, and Wheeler will deservedly draw much of the attention entering the 2026 season, Shane Baz feels like the type of pitcher who could quietly force his way into that conversation. Injuries have delayed his path, but they may not have derailed it. If his results begin to better match his peripherals, Baz has a real chance to emerge as one of the biggest pitching breakouts in baseball this season.
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