The 2023 National League postseason push is coming down to the wire, and it is expected to be a good one. Currently, 6 teams are fighting for 3 playoff spots, and are all within 5 games of each other. With the Braves and Dodgers having solidified their postseason spots, I decided to take a look at the other teams who have a chance to make the postseason in the NL, and have ranked the 3 best teams in how likely they are to make a postseason run (beat the Braves or Dodgers).
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Since June 1, the Philadelphia Phillies have the 3rd highest Win% in all of baseball (behind the Braves and Dodgers), at .628. During that same frame, they are 4th in Runs/G, averaging 5.41 runs. When the Phillies added Trea Turner this offseason, it was expected that the offense would be better, and while it has taken time for him and the offense to get going, the imagined offense is finally coming to fruition.
The last 3 months, the pitching staff has been elite as well, as the Phillies have the 4th lowest WHIP (1.18) during that time, and the lowest ERA in baseball (3.49). With the ballclub soon getting back 2022 playoff hero Ranger Suarez, and already having ace Zack Wheeler and a deep rotation behind him, the Phillies are poised to make a run for the National League pennant once again.
2. Chicago Cubs
Coming into July 1st, the Cubs were sitting at 38-42, 4th in the NL Central, and destined to be sellers at the trade deadline. However, since that day, the tides turned in Chicago, and the Cubs strung together a 34-22 record, 3rd best in the National League.
A lot of factors have played a role in the Chicago resurgence, starting off with the hitting. Since July 1st, the Cubs have a .765 OPS and have manufactured 307 runs, placing them at 2nd and 3rd best in the league during that frame. The Cubs have 5 players with an OPS+ above 105, including a resurgent Cody Bellinger who has a 141 OPS+ and has begun to look like his MVP self again. Their other position players who consistently play are not slouches, either, as they all have an OPS+ above 93. The lineup gives them a chance to win every game, and in the postseason, having a lineup that can mash is necessary when facing good pitching.
While the pitching staff leaves much to be desired, the Cubs have been able to rely on ace Justin Steele, who has posted a career low 2.69 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Cubs have also gotten a bounce-back season from their longest tenured player, Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has a 3.59 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, and has provided stability to the middle of the rotation. The Cubs also have the 12th best bullpen by WHIP, above teams like the Orioles and Astros, and a top closer in the game right now in Adbert Alzolay (0.984 WHIP).
However, with Marcus Stroman’s health in question for the postseason, and a weak rotation minus Steele and Hendricks, the Cubs drop down to the number 2 spot on this ranking.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
At 74-59, the Brewers currently sit atop the NL Central with a 3.0G lead over the Chicago Cubs, and are primed to make the postseason again for the 5th time in the last 6 seasons. The Brewers are led by a pitching staff that is one of the best in baseball, ranking first in the NL in WHIP (1.21) and 4th in the NL in ERA (3.94). With a rotation led by Corbin Burnes, who is having a down year but has still been very good (3.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), and resurgent Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley, and Freddy Peralta seasons, the Brewers have the starting pitching to go toe-to-toe with anyone. The Brewers also have the bullpen to compete, housing 4 relief pitchers with a WHIP under 1.07, including star closer Devin Williams.
While the pitching staff is on a level close to the Braves, the lineup leaves a lot to be desired, dropping them to number 3 on this ranking. The Brewers have a .693 OPS and only 138 homeruns, placing them at 25th and 22nd in the league, respectively. The team averages 4.41 runs per game, putting them at 18th in the league. Thus, in order to make a run, the Brewers will need their pitching staff to be elite all postseason, and anything short of that could mean the end of the 2023 season for the Brew Crew.
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