Not long ago, the Orioles looked like a team ready to run the AL East for years. They had a young, exciting core, a farm system stacked with talent, and a roster that seemed to get better every season. Fast forward to 2025, and that vision feels like it’s slipping away. The pitching staff is breaking down, cornerstone players aren’t developing as hoped, and the once-deep farm system is now paper-thin.
Pitching Staff Falling Apart
Grayson Rodriguez missing all of 2026 is a massive blow. He was supposed to be the ace of the future, and without him, the rotation is left with more questions than answers.
The one constant has been Trevor Rogers, who’s been nothing short of dominant with a 1.44 ERA. But Rogers is only under contract through next season, and at some point the Orioles have to decide if they’re willing to pay him like the ace he’s been.
That decision isn’t for this winter — but this offseason still matters. Baltimore needs to decide whether they’re going to bring in a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm, someone like Ranger Suárez, to give Rogers real support. History says they won’t. Just last year, they let Corbin Burnes walk after one season and didn’t replace him with anyone close to his caliber. That decision left a gaping hole in the rotation, and it’s a big reason why they’re in this spot now.
Core Pieces Not Clicking
This team was built on the idea that their young stars would form the backbone of a perennial contender. Instead, their development has been inconsistent, and in some cases, moving in the wrong direction.
Adley Rutschman came into the league looking like the next great catcher — patient at the plate, strong defensively, and capable of hitting for average and power. But his OPS+ has dropped every year since his rookie campaign, now sitting at exactly 100, which is league average. For a player hyped as a franchise cornerstone and an MVP-caliber bat, that’s a problem. He’s still solid, but “solid” is not what this team needs from him if they’re going to contend.
Gunnar Henderson has been one of the few steady offensive performers, but his defense has fallen off dramatically. In 2024, he posted 5 Defensive Runs Saved and -1 Outs Above Average — slightly below average but far from a liability. This year, those numbers have crashed to -7 DRS and -5 OAA. That’s the type of defensive regression that can swing games, especially at a premium position.
For a team built around homegrown stars, seeing those players plateau or regress raises real questions about player development. The Orioles aren’t just waiting for the next wave of prospects -- they’re relying on these guys to be their leaders now, and they aren’t consistently performing at that level.
Farm System is Bare
Just a couple years ago, the Orioles had one of the deepest and most talked-about farm systems in baseball. They were churning out impact players at a rate most teams could only dream of, with scouts raving about wave after wave of talent. Now? According to MLB.com, they have just one top-100 prospect, and none of them are pitchers.
That’s a massive shift. The lack of high-end pitching prospects is especially alarming. When a rotation is already thin and you can’t call up a promising young arm to fill the gap, you’re forced to either spend big in free agency or trade from the major league roster — both of which come with risks this front office has been hesitant to take.
This isn’t just about the lack of elite names, either. The system as a whole has thinned out. That means fewer trade chips, less internal competition pushing current big leaguers, and no clear “next man up” if injuries hit. The Orioles went from overflowing with options to being one of the least-equipped contenders in baseball to handle roster holes.
Just a few years ago, Baltimore’s success was built on three pillars: a cheap, talented core, a loaded farm system, and a pitching staff on the rise. Two of those pillars are gone, and the other is starting to crack.
This offseason will say a lot about what’s next. Do they spend on a top starter? Do they position themselves to keep Rogers past 2026? Or do they keep playing it safe and risk wasting their window?
Right now, the Orioles feel dangerously close to going from “the next great team” to another “what could have been” story.
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