Meet The Unluckiest Player in Baseball: Bryan Reynolds

Not long ago, Bryan Reynolds was one of the most reliable pieces in Pittsburgh’s lineup. An All-Star in 2024, he seemed like the type of player you could pencil in every day for steady production both at the plate and in the field — a rarity in the Pirates’ lineup. 

Fast forward to 2025, however, and Reynolds has taken a significant step back. His batting average is down, his OPS has dipped, and his WAR is more than three wins lower than last season despite being on pace to play the same number of games.

But dig deeper, and the picture changes. Reynolds hasn’t fallen off. Rather, he’s been playing just as well as he did last season, as the advanced numbers suggest he’s been one of the unluckiest players in baseball this season.

Surface Numbers Tell One Story

The most obvious decline for Reynolds’ production comes in the traditional stats. In 2024, he was an All-Star, posting a .275 AVG, .344 OBP, and .447 SLG. However, in 2025, he has taken a dip in all of these numbers, posting a .242 AVG, .299 OBP, .396 SLG. That 45-point drop in on-base percentage and 50-point drop in slugging percentage make it look like Reynolds has regressed. But the underlying metrics tell a very different story.

When you look at his quality of contact, Reynolds is actually outperforming his 2024 All-Star season. In 2024, Reynolds had a .270 xBA, .463 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, while in 2025, he has a .275 xBA, .477 xSLG, .346 xwOBA. Both his expected batting average and expected slugging are up this season. That means he’s making better contact and hitting the ball harder than last year. If anything, his batted-ball profile suggests he should be producing more, not less. The gap between expected stats and actual results points to bad luck more than bad performance, and here's why:

BABIP and Clutch Hitting Aren’t the Problem

Usually, when a hitter’s stats fall off from year to year, there are two common culprits: a drop in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) or poor performance with runners in scoring position. Neither applies here. Thus far, Reynolds’ BABIP is only down .014 points from last year, far too small a difference to explain the production gap. Additionally, his hitting with runners in scoring position has been near the top of the league, as he’s batting .298 with RISP, displaying how he’s not folding in clutch spots.

This isn’t a case of weak contact finding gloves or shrinking under pressure, as Reynolds has been steady in both categories.

Defense Trending in the Right Direction

Since 2021, Reynolds’ defensive reputation has been shaky. But in 2025, he has actually taken a step forward compared to last season. In 2024, he has -12 Outs Above Average (OAA) and -2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), while in 2025, he has posted -3 OAA and -5 DRS. 

Neither line makes him a Gold Glove candidate, but going from -12 to -3 OAA is a significant improvement. His routes have been sharper, and he’s been closer to average in the outfield. That matters for a player who logs as many innings as Reynolds.

Put it all together, and it’s hard to explain why Reynolds’ WAR is more than three wins lower than last season. He’s hitting the ball better than last year, his defense has improved, and he’s still delivering in clutch moments. Yet the results on the field paint a different picture.

Baseball is a game of small margins, and sometimes those margins swing against you. Right now, that’s Bryan Reynolds’ reality.