As Spring Training is getting underway, so are extension talks. While these talks are expected for guys who are on the last year of their deal, there were some surprising comments made earlier this week by Bryce Harper - that he wants a new deal. Previously, Harper has said that he wants to play until he is 45, and he doubled down on those comments when he said, “I want to be here for a long time - playing into my 40’s.” For the 2-time MVP this sounds like a great proposition - he gets to make millions of dollars well into his 40’s - but for the Phillies this would be a horrible idea. Here’s why:
Injury History
Harper had been relatively healthy for the first 3 years of his Phillies career, playing in over 87% of the games in 2019, 2020, and 2021. However, during that time, he has still struggled with lingering back injuries. Over the last two seasons - mainly due to Tommy John Surgery and a HBP fracturing his thumb - he has played in only 70% of the games. Furthermore, due to his surgery on his throwing elbow, he will be shifting over to first base for the foreseeable future - a position of significantly less defensive value than the outfield. While Harper had a good year at first base last season, posting 3 DRS, he is already 31, and as he ages, his defense production will almost certainly drop.
A Comparison
To further dive into what Bryce Harper’s production could look like, we look to the last 25 years. Within this time frame, 3 position players have retired at the age of 45 or older - Ichiro Suzuki (only played in 2 games his age 45 season), Omar Vizquel, and Julio Franco. Vizquel was a defensive-oriented player throughout his career, so we won’t compare Harper to him. So we will compare him to the player who is most similar of these three to Bryce - an offensive-oriented first baseman.
In Franco’s age 40-46 seasons, he had an above average 105 OPS+ and a 2.4 oWAR (Offensive Wins Above Replacement), but a poor -0.9 dWAR (Defensive Wins Above Replacement). Franco was still a somewhat productive offensive player at his late age, and if Harper continues on his current trajectory and stays healthy, he will also more than likely grade out as a league average player at that age. Contrary to Harper, however, Franco only made 1.95 million dollars during that time frame, white Harper is expected to earn a lot more.
Barring any injury, which is an obvious risk given his prior history, Harper should still be able to contribute during his age 40 seasons and on. However, even then, the contract he would receive would not be worth his projected production of an average to above average hitter. Right now, league average hitters who are average to below average defenders are receiving market values of around ~$15 million annually, evidenced by Rhys Hoskins signing. A yearly extension of ~35+ million dollars per year may be in the works for Harper, which would be devastating to the Phillies if his production takes an expected dive.
While Harper is the heart and soul of this Phillies team, it would be wise for the front office and ownership to think twice about extending Harper.
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