Coming off a NLCS run in the 2022 season, expectations for the Padres were high in the 2023 season. Thus far, however, the Padres have failed to live up to their expectations, and now face a very difficult question this deadline- do we sell, buy, or stand put?
The answer to this question is quite simple- Sell.
Since 2012 (the start of the Wild Card game), only one team has had an under .500 record at the 105-game-mark, and that team is the Texas Rangers. The Rangers were 52-53 at the 105-game-mark, and ended the season on a 36-21 run (.632 WP), good enough to win the division with an 88-74 record. However, their case is different from the Padres, as they only had to secure their division, which was not nearly as strong as the NL West currently is. The Padres (51-54) are currently well out of the NL West division race, as they currently sit 9 GB of the Dodgers, who lead the division, and would likely need to grab a Wild Card spot in order to make the postseason. However, even then their hopes are bleak, as 4 of the 6 teams currently ahead of them have easier schedules (based on Strength of Schedule) for the remainder of the season.
According to FanGraphs, the 3rd Wild Card spot is projected to go to the Miami Marlins, who are on pace to win 86 games, while the Padres are projected to only win 82. In order to surpass that projection and the Marlins’ projection, the Padres will need to go 36-21, and while this may seem achievable based on the 2015 Texas Rangers, it is far more out of reach than it seems, as the Rangers only faced a second-half Strength of Schedule of .500 WP, while the Padres will have to face a Strength of Schedule of .503 WP.
Not only are their chances of making the postseason slim, but the San Diego Padres have lost a number of young assets due to the large amounts of trades they have made to acquire stars over the last 3 years. With star pitchers such as Blake Snell and Josh Hader in the last years of their contracts, it would be smart for the Padres to move them on to their next team and replenish some of the assets that they lost, while also allowing them to stay in relative contention for an NL Wild Card spot this season.
While it does not make sense for the Padres to sell all of their key talents on their team at this deadline, the franchise should look to retool, as the current shape of the organization is not yet World Series caliber. Acquiring young prospects for players on expiring deals will not only help them become younger, but also provide assets for future trades in order to stay competitive during the Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. years.
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