Baseball is a funny sport. Sometimes the best player in the world can’t buy a hit for a week, while a bench player mashes 3 home runs in a game. While the game has been constantly changing its hundreds of years of existence, there exists one consistency - luck. Luck has been the biggest factor in baseball, as it is often the difference in a team winning a Word Series or not. In today’s blog, I am going to talk about the 3 unluckiest players in MLB, and how they have the capabilities to turn their season around.
Garret Crochet - SP (Chicago White Sox):
After spending his short MLB career as a reliever thus far, Crochet transformed into a starting pitcher ahead of the 2024 MLB season. So far, he has seen mixed results, as he has a 5.97 ERA and 4.00 FIP. Crochet’s peripherals, however, demonstrate a different story. His expected ERA is a miniscule 2.47, and his expected FIP is 2.86. His K/9 is the highest it has ever been in his career at 12.2, and his WHIP is at its lowest point at 1.096. As Crochet looks to bring his home run total down, which is currently at 7, and he continues to transition into a full-time starter, it is only a matter of time before he puts it all together.
Brandon Nimmo - OF (New York Mets):
For the last 4 years, Brandon Nimmo has been one of baseball’s most consistent hitters, as his batting average has been well above .270 in each season. This year, however, Nimmo has gotten off to a slow start, as he is batting only .216 with a .360 SLG. Nimmo’s peripherals, however, tell a completely different story of the player. For starters, his expected batting average this season is .299 - a full .083 points above his actual batting average. His expected SLG corroborates the fact that he has been hitting the ball hard, as it sits at .531 - .171 points above his actual SLG. Nimmo’s wOBA (weighted on base average) currently sits at .336, which is not bad, but his expected wOBA of .417 would place him amongst MLB’s best hitters this season. Given Nimmo’s consistency throughout his career, expect him to break out of this funk and start getting some luck in his favor.
Shea Langeliers - C (Oakland Athletics):
Like the other players listed above, Langeliers’ stats this year have not been pretty, as he has a .170 AVG, and .675 OPS. However, Langeliers has been hitting the ball extremely well, as his Barrel % is in the 97th percentile, and his peripherals show just how well has been hitting. He currently has a .251 xBA - .081 points higher than his actual average - and a .527 xSLG - 0.133 points higher than his actual SLG. Langeliers also holds an expected wOBA of .353, which is 0.087 points higher than his wOBA. With him being one of baseball’s top defensive catchers already, a little more luck for Langeliers could solidify him as a top 10 catcher in the league.
Given that it is still only May, there is plenty of time for these guys to turn their season around. If they keep playing the way they are, they are destined to start seeing lucky bounces go in their favor.
Comments